Contributors to John O'Brien's Visions 2100 project were asked to work from the optimistic premise that by the year 2100 planet Earth will finally be a low carbon world. They were then asked to reflect on the long journey to that goal from 2015.
The world is just: Mary Robinson, Ireland
My great-grandchildren share the world with over nine billion people; they truly share the planet. They know the reality of their interconnected dependence on their fellow human beings and therefore they respect each other and the planet.
The decisions my generation took in 2015, to set the course for transformative change for a safe world for future generations, have been realised.
So now, poverty is eradicated. Every child goes to school regardless of sex, race, religion or place of birth. Every woman enjoys equality with every man. Every household has access to energy; energy sourced from renewables that has enabled the development of nations, communities and families while protecting our planet.
In 2100, the world is just.
(Mary Robinson is a special envoy on climate change, United Nations, former president of Ireland and president of the Mary Robinson Foundation—Climate Justice)
The climate neutral world: Christiana Figueres, Germany
It is the start of the year 2100 and the fireworks shows held in megacities across the globe to ring in the New Year are still fresh in everyone's mind. There is much speculation as to what the next century may bring. Many of those looking forward to a new century spent the weeks leading up to the new year reflecting on the last century—how we got where we are.
In almost every case progress could be traced back to the year 2015, when all governments of the world shed old divides and agreed to a long-term goal of climate-neutral growth. In that pursuit they agreed to an unprecedented level of collaboration, which stabilised a disrupted climate system that had threatened to erase prior gains and put a brake on further social and economic development around the world. In the years following 2015, global emissions peaked and deep decarbonisation of the world economy was achieved as countries fulfilled commitments to move towards clean energy and sustainable development. This move to solar and wind energy was enabled by technology that drove demand—electric vehicles, energy independent buildings, intelligent micro-grids, improved electricity storage, smart agriculture and highly efficient transport systems.
Financing these advances sparked a virtuous cycle of ingenuity and innovation, resulting in global development that kept people and planet healthy and the economy prosperous even as the population surged past nine billion. Certainly, challenges arose from our many years of carbon intense growth, but the spirit of cooperation and collaboration that emerged helped countries, cities, businesses and individuals work together to overcome these challenges, adapt to our new climate and meet our global sustainable development goals.
A new century presents new opportunity and because governments enacted climate-safe development that will serve for generations, opportunity from 2100 forward is unimaginably vast and incredibly varied.
(Christiana Figueres is executive secretary, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change)
By the skin of our teeth: Antony Funnell, Australia
How did we get to a low carbon world? Barely; with enormous difficulty; by the skin of our teeth; with absolutely no time to spare; with a constant eye for any other option.
We got there through fair and foul—through market economics as much as enlightenment; through dirty politics and national self-interest, not just fine words and good intentions.
But we got there—just in time.
Now we have to live with the consequences of taking so long to make the journey.
How did we create a low carbon world? Through high-tech luck more than dogged persistence; through scientific game-changers like nuclear fusion and artificial photosynthesis.
But we created it—just in time.
So, what did we discover along the way?
We prided ourselves that human beings are ultimately self-correcting—perhaps, maybe. But we were also forced to acknowledge that we like to avoid taking difficult decisions until the very last moment—until the hour is about to strike. Until we absolutely have to.
We learned that—grudgingly.
Still, we got there—with not a moment to spare.
And now we have to deal with the consequences of taking so long to make the journey.
(Antony Funnell is an author and presenter of Future Tense)
Climate crimes: Professor Peter Doherty AC, Australia
The eminent international lawyers who drew up the Climate Crimes Against Humanity Statutes way back in 2045 certainly hadn't made it easy for prosecutors or defence counsel. Even without any statute of limitations, most of these cases had to be tried after the real defendants were dead. Those early jurists had, of course, foreseen that circumstance in mandating the confiscation of inherited wealth that could be traced back to a culpable individual. But, apart from the difficulties associated with following the money trail, and even with the capacity to penalise complicit bankers and accountants, the basic problem was the unfairness of recovering substantial amounts of money from people who were often completely innocent of any personal wrongdoing.
Still, the level of public rage was so overwhelming that there had to be some perception of retribution against those who had, for example, bought-up promising clean and green technologies to suppress them, or had benefitted from the aggressive marketing and distribution of fossil fuels. And the long-gone politicians who had allowed this to continue had, in the main, not left substantial estates. Apart from the odium attached to their names in the historical record—every school kid can list them—they paid no price.
The year 2100 saw the abandonment of the whole strategy. Prosecuting climate crimes had been a waste of time and effort, with no real deterrent effect or any other obvious benefit. We've learned our lesson and have moved on.
(Professor Peter Doherty AC is the joint winner of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1996 and Australian of the Year in 1997)
Common sense: Professor Chris West, UK
In city-colonies alongside energy and food centres and ecology reserves, we have immersion pods so children can experience what the world was like after humans 'swarmed' and nearly sabotaged the planet. They can see and feel compressed into minutes the time of reckless chopping, digging, burning, befouling, breeding and fighting that happened and hear the falsehoods of leaders blinded by greed and bingeing selfishly as others starved and died. They called it 'progress'.
Most children cry on experiencing the harpooning of a whale or the felling of an ancient tree. They ask us older ones, why did you let it happen? It's a fair question, hard to answer. Our world is hot, crowded and damaged, but we finally realised that life was more precious than money. We discovered ourselves. We take the children and share with them the 'rewild areas' to feel the shade of trees and listen to real birdsong. They learn about ecology, not economics, so they understand that we depend on nature as it depends on us. Us older ones celebrate survival and the youngsters hope and renewal.
This isn't really about politics, economics or religion. It is a combination of common sense and deep feelings and taking responsibility, each of us as a human and as a part of nature.
(Professor Chris West is CEO, Royal Zoological Society of Scotland)
Cleaner, fairer, smaller: Rachel Kyte, USA
The changes came when trees and farms started appearing in every small plot of land in the city. Dining halls became the place to be. No more restaurants with tables for two. On stilts above the wave turbines and under the solar arrays, I remember the academic year when, for the first time, the majority of students sought careers in neither finance nor law, but in nexus engineering: food-water-energy. It was the same year that GDP was replaced with the new wealth index—and despite 'Y2K fears' all went well. There were no major devaluations and those doubts of a disorderly transition to low-carbon growth were faced down.
Did having an all-female G7 Summit 10 years earlier have anything to do with the smoothness of the transition? Probably, but with conflicts on the rise, displaced people on the move and air quality choking back progress, it was tough pragmatism that I remember.
Deciding to end income tax and replace it with carbon consumption was the centrepiece of the election platform. Only when three megacities declared bankruptcy after the summer of squalls did soccer mums truly get behind the call. And it worked, despite disputes in the courts.
Now, everything has become smaller. Apartments, trains and mobility devices, watches and personal data devices. Veggie burgers. Still, it's cleaner and fairer.
But I miss some things because we didn't move fast enough. Coral reefs and alpine skiing, anchovies and sardines, having a pet. The coastal paths of my childhood in the UK. The iconic 'Slip, Slop, Slap' campaign seems so quaint now as the summer burns and the winter freezes. So afraid to act, we forgot that not acting was in fact the most dangerous action!
The cost of the damage has crippled some economies far more than the costs of adjustment. But those that invested are transformed. Deserts are our new energy super-suppliers, from Chile to Morocco to Mongolia.
If we knew then what we know now we would have had more confidence. We could have preserved the cultures of low lying communities, from Florida and Tuvalu to the Sundarbans. We could have preserved more of the glaciers and averted the water disputes that have redrawn the political maps. We had the information at our fingertips. We just didn't get everyone to move as quickly as they should have.
(Rachel Kyte is vice-president and special envoy for climate change, World Bank)
Visions 2100: Stories From Your Future by John O'Brien is published by Vivid Publishing.